Latest Logistics Trends in Aviation
Ronan McKenna
Materials Manager at Shannon Technical Services
Recent trade and political shifts mean the air-cargo environment in 2025 looks very different from a year ago. Tariff reforms, regional capacity imbalances, infrastructure constraints and sustainability mandates are reshaping air logistics.
Shannon Technical Services recently spoke with Frank McNamara Jnr, Managing Director at Eastway, about how forwarders are coping. His real-world experience, combined with current market data, offers useful lessons for lessors and airlines planning capacity and risk strategies for the coming year. Where noted, industry data points are sourced to IATA and respected trade outlets.
Tariffs, de minimis and demand swings
Trade policy is a primary catalyst for volume swings. In July 2025, global air-cargo volumes increased by around 5% compared with the same month the previous year, as US importers accelerated shipments ahead of new tariffs. This short-term rise contrasts with IATA’s full-year forecast, which anticipates global cargo growth of only 0.7% for 2025 overall. Despite the temporary surge in volume, average spot prices softened slightly, falling around 2% year on year to approximately US $2.55 per kilogram in August, according to data cited by Supply Chain Dive.
Frank McNamara notes that clients are increasingly asking forwarders to change routes at short notice to avoid tariff costs and congestion. As he put it, “we’re seeing more requests to deviate from traditional routing to avoid bottlenecks or customs delays,” a reminder that airlines need to be ready to reallocate freighters quickly when policy or demand shifts.
One policy change stands out: the removal of the US de minimis exemption that allowed parcels under US$800 to enter without duties or formal customs entry. Removal for China and Hong Kong began in May 2025, and the broader roll-off later in the summer further disrupted flows. UPS told investors that volumes from China fell by nearly 35% in May and June after de minimis removal for China and Hong Kong. Analysts also observed sharp drops in low-value e-commerce shipments headed to the US.
IATA’s own outlook expects global air-cargo growth to slow to around 0.7% in 2025. The combination of new tariffs, removal of de minimis, and cheaper ocean freight relative to air reduces air’s competitiveness. Lower oil prices provide some relief, IATA expects Brent to average about US$69 per barrel in 2025 (around 13% below 2024) and jet fuel to average roughly US$86, but pricing remains volatile.
Regional demand and capacity
IATA’s July snapshot shows an uneven picture by region. Global cargo traffic (CTK) increased about 5.5% year on year, with capacity (ACTK) up around 3.9%. Asia–Pacific carriers led growth at roughly 11.1%, Africa posted about 9.4%, while North America rose only 0.7% and even saw a small capacity decline. European carriers grew modestly. The message for lessors is clear: deploy lift where the flows are strongest, and be ready to pivot when trade lanes move.
Capacity remains tight and infrastructure can be the chokepoint. A US Government Accountability Office review highlighted familiar airport bottlenecks: insufficient truck parking, awkward road layouts, crowded cargo aprons and outdated warehouses. These constraints add cost and time across the air-logistics chain.
Ground reality: labour, handling and geopolitical friction
Labour shortages and handling constraints are still biting in key markets. C.H. Robinson’s April 2025 update reported staff shortages affecting cargo handling at major US gateways such as Memphis and Louisville, causing delays and rate volatility. Latin American hubs including Mexico City and Bogotá also reported staffing-related inefficiencies, while congestion persisted at large Asian hubs including Shanghai and Hong Kong. Regional security measures and airspace closures around the Middle East added further disruption.
Frank corroborates this ground-level picture: hold-ups from congested handling and inconsistent documentation remain frequent pain points, especially at secondary airports where processes and infrastructure can be less mature.
Compliance and security pressures
Tariffs are not the only regulatory headwind. Tighter customs regimes and the rollback of de minimis have increased the number of shipments requiring full entries, magnifying the risk of documentation errors and clearance delays. Industry reporting also flags a rise in cargo theft, with sophisticated fraud and deception methods featuring more often, which reinforces the case for better security protocols and visibility tools.
Technology and sustainability: moving from box-ticking to advantage
Digitalisation is delivering practical wins. Predictive analytics can improve demand forecasting and slot planning, helping airlines and forwarders better match capacity with demand. Airports and logistics operators adopting digital tools report fewer manual errors and quicker, cleaner handoffs. As Frank McNamara notes, clients now value real-time visibility and clear reporting on delays or bottlenecks just as much as transit time.
Sustainability is moving from aspiration to requirement. The EU’s ReFuelEU Aviation regime takes effect in 2025 with a minimum 2% SAF blend at EU airports, stepping up over time. IATA members remain committed to net-zero by 2050 through a mix of SAF, new technology and operational efficiency. Each new aircraft generation typically delivers 15–20% better fuel efficiency, and many carriers, including Cathay Cargo and Air France-KLM, have signalled plans to reach 10% SAF by 2030. Lessors and airlines that align leases and fleet plans with SAF availability and fuel-efficient types will be better placed as customer RFPs add emissions criteria.
Practical lessons for lessors and airlines
- Plan for tariff and policy volatility. Track policy moves and shorten quoting windows. Build tariff and surcharge adjustment clauses into contracts. Keep capacity flexible so aircraft can be redeployed when trade lanes shift.
- Invest in documentation and customs expertise. Automate paperwork, integrate with customs where possible, and train staff on evolving requirements to reduce clearance delays.
- Strengthen airport and handler partnerships. Work with airports to mitigate bottlenecks and push for upgrades in aprons, road access and warehousing. Choose handlers with proven dwell-time performance.
- Use digital tools to raise utilisation. Predictive analytics and real-time visibility improve load factors, reduce missed connections and cut exception costs.
- Diversify fleet and lease structures. Balance dedicated freighters with belly capacity. Consider shorter terms or wet-lease options to respond to regional swings without locking in the wrong aircraft on the wrong lane.
- Commit to sustainability now. Prioritise newer, more efficient aircraft; explore SAF offtake or access clauses; and provide emissions reporting at shipment level. Customers increasingly ask for the ‘carbon cost per kilo’.
- Harden security and resilience. Invest in secure facilities and screening, and maintain contingency routings for geopolitical or weather events.
Conclusion
Air-cargo logistics in 2025 is being pulled in multiple directions. Demand spikes linked to tariff uncertainty are interspersed with softening rates and a subdued full-year growth outlook. Capacity has improved but remains uneven, with airport bottlenecks and labour shortfalls dragging on performance. The leaders are investing in documentation, digital tools and sustainability while keeping leases and fleet plans flexible. As Frank McNamara summed up in our conversation, proactivity beats reactivity. Anticipating change rather than reacting to it is how lessors and airlines will protect margins and service reliability when trade winds shift.
At Shannon Technical Services we support that approach by offering a one-stop shop and full 360-degree coverage in procurement and logistics. With a single point of contact, and on-site coordinators deployed locally where required, we help manage tariff changes and bottleneck issues directly. By working alongside trusted freight forwarders, we coordinate the entire process so your project runs as smoothly as possible. In short, you do not have to worry about the complexity, STS takes care of it all.
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