Maintenance Reserve & Fly Forward Analysis
Accurate Reserves, Clear Timelines, Predictable Cash Flow
Overview of Maintenance Reserve Funds & Fly Forward Analysis
STS helps lessors and operators plan maintenance spend and reserve strategy with a clear Maintenance Reserve Forecast (MRF) and fly forward analysis. We baseline each asset using current utilisation, configuration and maintenance status, then model future events, costs and reserve requirements under realistic scenarios.
Outputs include reserve rate guidance, event timelines and cashflow views that support negotiations, novations and portfolio decisions.
Key Benefits
Predictable Cashflow
Event timing and cost forecasts with reserve adequacy checks and early warnings, improving reserve planning and budget certainty.
Fewer Redelivery Surprises
Clear view of workscope drivers, LLP lives, reserve adequacy and lease obligations, with early warnings on event timing long before return.
Better Commercial Decisions
Scenario modelling that shows the impact of utilisation, configuration and policy choices on cost and value.
What Our Maintenance Reserve Funds & Fly Forward Service Includes
Data Collection & Baseline
- Aircraft records and status per aircraft serial number: flight hours, flight cycles, calendar limits, last maintenance events, remaining life of LLPs, status of ADs and SBs, modification and supplemental type certificate configuration, maximum take-off weight and engine thrust rating
- Lease economics: reserve clauses, escalation indices, caps and floors, exclusions, reimbursements and redelivery conditions
Modelling & Scenarios
- Forecast of airframe, engine, APU and landing gear events with workscope assumptions and vendor turnaround time assumptions
- Reserve rate setting and sensitivity analysis across multiple scenarios, with escalation and foreign exchange options
Governance, Reporting & Visibility
- Fly forward pack per MSN: event timeline, cost profile, reserve adequacy and redelivery outlook, with portfolio roll‑up
- Client‑visible tracker and Open Item List to capture risks, decisions, evidence and due dates
Commercial Support & Settlements
- Reserve claims, settlements and novations, including airframe checks (6, 8, 10 and 12 year), landing gear overhaul or replacement, engine performance restoration or overhaul, life-limited part replacement and APU overhauls, subject to the lease.
- Quote benchmarking and negotiation support for major events, aligned to the agreed workscope strategy
Featured Case Study
Reliable Fleet Inspections, Worldwide
Discover how STS helped a leading Lessor to deliver reliable mid-lease inspections at a global scale to 140 aircraft.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What is fly forward analysis?
A: A forward‑looking forecast of maintenance events, timing and cost for each MSN based on current status and realistic utilisation and workscope assumptions. It shows when reserves will be used and whether rates are adequate.
Q: What inputs do you need to start?
A: Recent utilisation, last and next‑due maintenance status, LLP and BTB trace where applicable, AD or SB status, MTOW and engine thrust rating, lease reserve clauses and escalation details, plus any planned configuration or utilisation changes.
Q: How accurate are the forecasts?
A: Early forecasts are rough order of magnitude and tighten as records and vendor inputs firm up. Accuracy depends on workscope definition, utilisation stability, pricing and turnaround times. We show ranges and the drivers behind them.
Q: How often should the model be updated?
A: Quarterly is typical, monthly during active transitions or major shop visits. We refresh for utilisation changes, policy updates, new findings and vendor quotes.
Q: Do you support reserve rate setting and settlements?
A: Yes. We provide rate recommendations by MSN and fleet, support invoice and claim reviews, and prepare settlement positions for novation and redelivery.
Q: Which reserve claim types do you support?
A: Airframe checks (6, 8, 10 and 12 year), landing gear overhauls or replacements, engine performance restoration and overhaul, engine life-limited parts replacement and APU overhauls. Eligibility and documentation follow the lease.